Today we hear all day on NOS that Rutte is "saying goodbye". Again just now, on the news. "Other MPs are saying goodbye to Rutte," they say. Bullshit! Rutte isn't leaving at all yet. He'll be there for another nine months or so, and maybe even a year.
It is clear what has happened in recent days. Rutte thought he could safely drop the cabinet on asylum. That would do the VVD no harm, he could continue as list leader, and he would then put together his fifth cabinet.
But then something happened that he hadn't counted on. He thought he could blame the Christian Union. Only the other parties did not go along. Even coalition parties - ChristenUnie, CDA and D66 - said loud and clear that the fault lay not with the CU, but with the VVD. And especially to Rutte personally. He was a "pyromaniac" who played party political games.
It was then announced by the opposition that they would file a no-confidence motion. That motion would insist that Rutte disappear immediately. This motion was supported by the entire opposition except for Liane den Haan and most likely also by at least one, and possibly even several coalition parties.
To that, Rutte made a deal behind the scenes: he can remain in office as caretaker until a new cabinet is formed if he announces that he will neither become list leader again nor prime minister again. In other words, he may stay on if he announces his departure from politics in due course.
They all think this is very neat. After all, the Dutch do not like harsh confrontations.
But the upshot is that Rutte is far from gone. New elections will be held in November, probably at the end of that month. So that's 4.5 months from now. Then there must be scouting, then formation.
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Rutte knows better than anyone else that this scouting and formation process will most likely take another few months. So we have to assume that he will be there for another 9 months - and possibly even a year, because if the polls are somewhat correct, a next cabinet should consist of five or even six parties. Get to it as a formateur.
Don't be fooled by NOS and the other media. There is no "goodbye" to Rutte yet.
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