A new day, a new poll. This time the poll comes via EenVandaag, in cooperation with Ipsos. The results are extremely remarkable. Indeed, the pollster pushes PvdA/GroenLinks enormously, giving that combination 7 seats more than in the previous poll. FVD and PVV are also on the rise. D66 and the CDA, meanwhile, are losing even more than they already did.
If the 2023 Lower House elections were today, the VVD would end up with 28 seats, according to EenVandaag/Ipsos. I believe pretty little of that - that seems like far e much, but the pollster claims it really is.
Although that makes the VVD bigger than PvdA/GreenLeft, the difference is now virtually minimal: one measly seat. The United Left, led by Frans Timmermans, gets as many as 27 seats. This means that currently it is really a race between Dilan Yesilgöz and Frans Timmermans for the Torentje.
Very interesting, of course, were it not for the fact that it does not really matter who wins: if these parties become roughly equal in size, they will simply sit together in a coalition. In terms of content, it really doesn't matter whether it is the Yesilgöz cabinet with the PvdA/GL in it, or the Timmermans cabinet with the VVD in it;
But I don't think the media cartel allows us to say that. They want to pretend that everything is really very exciting and extremely important. So we just shut up and say nothing;
The virtual growth of PvdA/GL comes at the expense of both D66 and the CDA. Those parties both lose 2 virtual seats in this poll, bringing the fake democrats to 10 seats (2.5 years ago there were 24!) and the fake Christians to 6. That leaves the CDA only slightly larger than FVD, the Christian Union and Volt.
As for FVD, there is good news. Thierry Baudet and his followers gain a virtual seat. As a result, they now stand at 4 seats. If history teaches us anything, it is that from now on pollsters like this occasionally give FVD a bit more so that at election time they end up with a number reasonably close to the result - so that they don't go down hard, but so that between elections they can keep FVD 'small' in terms of its public image.
The PVV is also doing very well. Wilders and his are gaining four seats. Wilders is obviously very happy about that, and proudly lets it be known on X/Twitter that he loves everyone.
At BBB, things are also still going very nicely. Caroline van der Plas and the hairs end up with 24 seats. That is quite a high number. But it is considerably less than PvdA/GL and the VVD. Three less than the former and four less than the latter. Yes, BBB is in the running for the premiership. But it is going to be difficult, because from now on the VVD and PvdA/GL will receive unlimited media attention. The media cartel does not want BBB to be the biggest, so they will try to put a stop to that.
Finally, there is bad news for JA21. Nicki Pouw-Verweij has already made it known that she does not want to return to the Lower House for that party. Apparently, quite a few voters have run away with her and returned to FVD and/or switched to PVV.
As a result, JA21 currently stands at 4 virtual seats. That is the lowest number the party has had in years. It is indicative of the lack of leadership of Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga. Voters have realized that a) the party does not actually stand for anything and b) it is very unsettled internally. Even now there are angry gossips suggesting that Eerdmans' time as party leader is coming to an end very soon. If not voluntarily then because the party is losing so much in the coming weeks and months that he can no longer stay in office.
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It is also noteworthy that the SP also loses a virtual seat to the monster alliance between PvdA and GroenLinks, according to EenVandaag/Ipsos. Remarkable, because in recent years the SP has clearly criticized those two parties because they actually functioned as demagogues of the nightmare Cabinet Rutte IV. You would think that voters would be aware of that and punish PvdA/GL, but apparently - because of all the pushing in the media, of course - that is not yet the case.
The task for the SP is therefore to make clear in campaign time that PvdA and GL have been substantively indistinguishable from D66 and even from the VVD.