Maurice de Hond poll: right-wing voters find asylum crisis extremely important, left-wing voters climate

Maurice de Hond's weekly poll this time does not show what the seat distribution would be if the Lower House elections were now. No, what he is concerned with now is the question: which voting blocs think which issues are most important? His conclusion is that the Netherlands is divided to the bone.

Actually, there are two big bucks voters and parties in our country who have totally opposite views on climate/nitrogen on one side, and asylum/immigration on the other.... and who also attach completely different importance to those issues. Left-wing voters and parties are very concerned about "climate change. Right-wing voters, on the other hand, are mostly very concerned with immigration. Or rather, the asylum tsunami that has been overwhelming our country for years.

As a result, a) the election results are going to be determined by the parties that score best on those priorities among their own potential voters and b) the spillover from left to right and vice versa is going to be very limited. Right-wing parties compete with each other for voters, and left-wing parties compete with each other. There is virtually no spillover.

Hie you see what leftist voters think: for them it's all about climate. Asylum is of limited importance to them. Then you see how right-wing voters think. They couldn't care less about the climate, but they find it completely ridiculous that foreign fortune seekers come to our country and fundamentally change it:

Omtzigt and the CDA

Yet there is something that is striking. Namely, voters of the CDA and Pieter Omtzigt do not fall into the left-wing camp in this distribution, but into the right-wing camp. Omtzigt is often seen as a left-wing politician - he thinks so too (not surprisingly, because he is). But his (potential) constituency is really right of center, at least on this issue.

At the same time, with the CDA you can see just why that party has been going broke in recent years. In the CDA there is a very influential left-wing Deug wing. That makes sure the CDA goes left again and again. But even the handful of voters the CDA has left are much more right-wing.

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It is probably far too late now. But a few years ago, the CDA could have chosen to be a traditionalist, conservative people's party - as is actually the case with every Christian Democratic party in the rest of Europe. The chances that the CDA would then have been at 5/6 seats in the polls in 2023 would have been very slim. Indeed, the party might then have been able to compete for the title: the largest in the country.