The VVD announced today that the party will no longer join the government. Dilan Yesilgöz says the party has lost so much, well, then a government role does not fit. What she does want to do? "tolerate a right-wing cabinet." Oh yes, well, then the VVD may bare their bottoms: Geert Wilders should call FVD as well as the SGP today and ask those parties to form a right-wing minority cabinet with him. Today.
Yesterday Pieter Omtzigt said that his statements on election night had been interpreted too "quickly" by journalists as being that he was willing to govern with the PVV after all. So he's not going to do that. Knetter, of course, because his own voters do want that. But then again, half of his new group consists of old left-wing CDA members. So that's what you get.
Dilan Yesilgöz said today what the VVD wants: they will not join the government. She had said this before the elections, but a lot of voters thought she was bluffing. If the PVV became the largest, she would still tack. Not so. The VVD won't.
So does this mean it's over and done with for the PVV and Wilders? Well, possibly so. But there is a way out: a way out suggested by Yesilgöz herself. Yesilgöz! Geert Wilders can and should just create a true right-wing minority cabinet. At least then he can start as prime minister. If that cabinet then doesn't last the ride because the VVD or NSC start blocking things despite their promise to be nice, so be it. So be it. At least then Wilders will have been prime minister for a while and he will have been able to show himself to the Dutch people.
What should such a minority cabinet look like? Very simple. It should work with the (right-wing) parties that have already indicated that they are open to it. Then you end up with a minority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, but so be it. We have to try... And by the way, there is also something to be said for a minority government in the sense that it strengthens the power of parliament, which is actually the intention in our system. 'Majority cabinets' are not at all the foundation of that system.
Which parties should be part of this minority Wilders I cabinet? Of course the PVV with 37 seats. BBB should be added to that. Then you end up with 44 seats. Then you add FVD and the SGP as well. The result: 50 seats in the Lower House. That is one third of the available seats ... and thus a real minority government;
Yesilgöz claims she will "tolerate a center-right cabinet." Then she should. You then end up with 74 seats "including proxy support." And then? Talk to Pieter Omtzigt. Who says he will not be in a cabinet with the PVV, but he has also said he wants to work constructively with the PVV. So if you let him operate independently but at the same time adjust your policy to his wishes as far as he can and must, he will undoubtedly be willing to vote for your proposals more often than not.
This is the game Wilders has to play now. After all, there is nothing else. There are no other options. The only other option is: new elections. But if Wilders wins again then the rest will simply repeat today's strategy and if Wilders loses because voters understand that voting strategically for him was useless, he will be thrown out of office anyway.
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Is such a minority coalition a certainty? No. But Wilders can seriously weaken the party cartel by playing the game this way. Because if the VVD and NSC then throw a spanner in the works while the minority cabinet is doing just fine, they weaken themselves and prove once and for all to voters that they are anti-democratic to the bone.
If new elections are held then, not only the PVV will benefit, but the other right-wing non-cartel parties as well. And that means a new cabinet led by Wilders, but stronger and with many more seats than Wilders I. Win-win-win!