The world is at a turning point. It always is,but now it is fierce. The balance of power is tilting at lightning speed. Where is it headed? Let's put things in perspective. I will sketch a few lines of thought, not exhaustive.
1. We feel that autocracies are making an advance at the expense of democracies. This is not the case in terms of numbers.Counting from World War II, the number of democracies has increased.Think of Greece, Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, South Korea,Taiwan, South Africa, Philippines and several other countries in Africa. The number of autocracies increased until 1975 but then declined (The decay of power by MoisesNaim). Democracies are globally preferred by voters, see the number of refugees to democracies from autocracies.
2. Globally, we see the power of democracies declining in favor of autocracies. Europe is expanding from 27 member states to 36 member states. The idea is that this would increase the power of the EU. However, the opposite is the case. The EU will be seriously weakened by the entry of corrupt andultimately weak Eastern Bloc countries. Europe will do more military protection because of hijackers on the coast such as Russia and China. The EU is financially flawed with debts up to its neck. Euro is full of flaws; is a crisis coming? Brussels centralism kills community spirit. The EU must be held up to the light. Europe's future is dubious. Take back control!
3. The United States is gradually withdrawing from the global battlefield, especially if Donald Trump becomes president again. The US is extremely divided internally. US power is declining.
4. China is advancing, including through the New Silk route. China's power is increasing.
5. Russia is brutal and dangerous to Europe. It seeks opportunities to destabilize Europe including through refugees.
6. India is on the rise. We are going to hear a lot from this country, especially in the IT field.
7. Even a small autocracy like North Korea can frighten democracies. North Korea appropriates a disproportionate amount of power. I also include Pakistan in this in time.
8. I see the power of countries in the Middle East diminishing over time due to the phase-out of fossil.
9. Not only is the power of democracies declining, so is its quality. The population is dissatisfied with them: too little participation and too little effectiveness. We also see autocratic elements creeping into democracies via Big Brother is watching you. Referendums are desperately needed to save "democracy" as a model of government.
10. Democracies are currently trending to the right. The left parties against, but is not well in the political contest. Watching out front stand as right gets blocked. Own people first, "populist nationalism" on the rise. Left misunderstanding as well.
11. There is deglobalization andreglobalization. Shorter trade routes, different supply chains. Trend towardcontinental autarky.
12. Within countries, IT's position takes on enormous proportions. The market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven is larger than the market capitalization of the US, France, China and Japan combined. These are Alphabet,Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla combined, being 17% of the MSCIWorld. The other 2939 companies in that index have "only" 83%. IT has unprecedented power that is hard to limit by multinationality.
Shifts are faster and more volatile.Power holders lose their positions more easily. The question is whether these trends will continue. Predicting is difficult, especially where the future is concerned. I see no reason yet why these lines should not continue. Europe is in the corner where the blows may fall. The wolves love thissappy morsel. Awake politics is needed in Europe more than ever, take backcontrol!
Frits Bosch is an economist and sociologist. He is also the author of "Risk as Obsession," "That's the Risk," "World at a Turning Point," "Discontent among the Elite," "Does the Netherlands Also Abolish Itself?" and "Feminism in the Workplace." His most recent book is Kafkaistan.