David Sacks is one of America's most well-known VCs (super investors in start-ups). He has a long list of successful projects. He is also a well-known ally of Elon Musk, the Twitter owner, Tesla boss, SpaceX leader, and Starlink hotshot. Sacks has now posted a long tweet on Twitter arguing that the media is not telling the truth about the situation in Ukraine. Because, he says, Ukraine has actually already lost the war.
"With each passing day, it’s becoming clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives," Sacks writes. "Recall: the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen. On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that Russia will take more territory and win the war, as Mearsheimer has predicted."
Mearsheimer is one of the world's best-known Russia experts. He has been critical of the West's dealings with Moscow and with Ukraine for years, all the while warning that there would be war if they continued like this. That turned out to be true.
"What are Biden’s options now?" continues Sacks. "Either escalate or admit defeat. In preparation for NATO’s Vilnius Summit, Blinken has been floating a proposal to give 'Israel status' to Ukraine. This means multi-year security guarantees including weapons, ammunition and money that would continue even if Biden loses the next election."
The problem with that, of course, is that this is not at all what Americans want. They thought they needed to give Ukraine a big one-time boost and then, hop, Ukraine would push the Russians back just as quickly. Americans don't like long wars at all anymore - wars in which it is also not clear how they should win exactly.
Sacks then looks at "the peace that could have been." Because, he says, the war did not have to last that long at all. In fact, last year the two sides were on the verge of an agreement.
"At a recent meeting with the African delegation, Putin showed the draft of an outline or preliminary agreement signed by the Ukrainian delegation at Istanbul in April 2022.," Sacks explains." "It provided that Russia would pull back to pre-war lines if Ukraine would agree not to join NATO (but Ukraine could receive security guarantees from the West)."
But that agreement, Sacks said, was shot down by Boris Johnson, who had gone to Ukraine on behalf of NATO/the West to speak with Zelensky. "Johnson (who must have been speaking not just for himself but for the Western alliance) wanted to pressure Putin, not make peace, and promised new weapons systems if Ukraine would keep fighting."
At the time, people in Ukraine also still thought they could win with good weapons. According to Sacks, that is no longer possible - and they no longer believe it in Ukraine either.
"I know some of you may find it hard to believe that the realities on the ground are so at odds with the mainstream media's coverage," argues in response. "But it’s worth recalling that the American public was assured for two decades that we were winning in Afghanistan. All of that reporting was revealed as a pack of lies when the Afghan army that we were supposedly “standing up” collapsed within a matter of weeks. At that point, the media stopped reporting on Afghanistan, just like it had stopped reporting on Iraq, instead of holding anyone accountable."
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Interestingly, the media then decided to give no attention to Afghanistan at all, Sacks said. No one was held accountable, Afghanistan was left to its own devices, and all the media switched to a new project against a new Great Enemy.
"Unfortunately, it looks like we're headed for a similar kind of outcome in Ukraine. The only question is when, and how long Biden will be able to perpetuate a proxy war of choice that could have easily been avoided," concludes Sacks.