Joost Niemoller: "The U.S. is checkmate in Ukraine. The time of American hegemony is over"

| by Michael van der Galien

The war in Ukraine seems to be getting worse and worse for Kiev. We even see reports from America in particular implying that Washington wants Zelensky and co. to slowly agree to a peace deal with Russia; a deal in which Ukraine will lose territory. How can this be? Surely Ukraine was supposedly winning? To untangle this mystery, De Dagelijkse Standaard spoke with Joost Niemoller, the independent journalist who follows the conflict closely and knows more about it than anyone else in the Dutch media.

We asked Joost what is really going on in the war zone? After all, we have been hearing for almost two years that Ukraine is defeating Russia. If that were true, it would have happened long ago by now and Ukrainian troops would be at Moscow's city limits by now. However, the opposite seems to be true. What is going on there, we wanted to know?

Russian supremacy

"It is a war of attrition," Niemoller responds. "At the front, Russia sometimes opts for defense, by hiding behind a triple defense wall, and sometimes carries out cautious attacks, without revealing anything about the underlying strategy. This is not very spectacular, but very effective. This throws Ukraine into constant confusion, prompting them to make erratic and foolish attacks, each time leading to heavy losses. Also because Zelenzksy conducts an "all-or-nothing" war. Every city is defended to the last man, every untenable position."

On the other hand, Russia is in no hurry, according to Niemoller. "They have enormous human and material superiority, and thanks to their well-functioning economy, based on increased trade with China and India, their weapons production is running at full capacity," he explained. "Russia is also doing a lot of technological innovation, for example developing and mass-producing supersonic missiles like the Kinzhal, which are fired from bombers far from the front, and drones with night vision.

"That makes it difficult for Ukrainian troops to move at night," Niemoller continued. "Something so simple turns out to be very essential, because it makes forward Ukrainian troops in trenches impossible or difficult to be refreshed."

And that's not all. Although Russia is supposedly "internationally isolated," the reality is different, Niemoller said. "Russia has further made a deal with North Korea, allowing thousands of containers of weapons and ammunition to be shipped to Russian Federation. Also, Russian Federation has nearly made a deal with India for arms production. Finally, China would secretly supply weapons to Russia, according to the Pentagon. So it is no exaggeration to say that Russia's arms stockpile is inexhaustible."

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"Gas and oil, of course, are no problem at all for Russia; this is often a bottleneck when waging wars," Niemoller then explained. "Also, this past summer Russia brought in a huge complement of personnel. New troops who by now will have been trained and can be deployed to the front."

Incredibly, Russia is still far from exploiting its full potential. "Their air force and tanks the Russians have barely deployed yet to reduce losses," Niemoller argues. "So we don't know what else they have in store."

Ukrainian self-aggrandizement

So what about Ukraine? Ukrainian leaders were always very positive about their chances of winning. Zelensky still brags daily that his troops will, in the end, really beat the Russians.

Niemoller is not impressed by that. Indeed, unlike Russia, Ukraine is "precisely in time trouble. The regime in Kiev depends on the flow of money and weapons from the West, and therefore they have to prove that they can deliver. Last year, Ukraine therefore conducted a so-called "summer offensive," which ended in total failure: Barely gained any ground, failed to break the Russian defense line, and did suffer heavy losses.

"The entire plan was based on irrational self-aggrandizement," it has since been leaked by The Washington Post. Russian defenses proved superior. The expensive European tanks were widely broken up by cheap Russian drones, artillery and missiles from Russian helicopters. The consequence is now a stalemate in U.S. politics. The U.S. has now spent the improbable sum of more than $75 billion, to no avail."

Course change

If so, do you see a different attitude toward Ukraine from some NATO countries and especially America, we asked Niemoller on that? For example, he recently indicated on X - where he is very active - that America is beginning to push behind the scenes for an agreement in which Ukraine might lose a substantial part of its own territory.

Is it really going that way?

"I keep seeing reports coming along about behind-the-scenes negotiations between the US and Russian Federation," is Niemoller's answer. "But what should these negotiations be about? The Russians are 100 percent in favor now."

American games

Unfortunately, the conflict has long since ceased to be about Ukraine itself, according to Niemoller. "Of great importance is the U.S. presidential election," he continues. "Biden has to have something in hand on Nov. 5. If that's not a victory, what is? Views of an honorable peace."

And there's the rub. "The Russians know this too, and so they are perfectly capable of playing that card to their advantage. Putin, for his part, is not only leader of Russia. In the non-Western world, he has become a mythical resistance hero. The man who resisted the mighty US. So he also has to show something. Quite apart from the fact that the Russian part of Ukraine, roughly half, is an important security factor for Russia's survival as a superpower. As long as Putin does not take control of the important cities of Kharkov and Odessa, he will not give up. Putin is increasingly talking about Novorossiya, a historical area that has taken on mythical significance in Russian politics. I think this is Putin's minimum demand."

"But I would not be surprised if he will not put on the table the demand that Kiev be given the status of a neutral city, with Lviv as the capital the new mini-state called Ukraine. Russia will then surely allow them to join the EU and NATO. Or Poland will pick it up."

Earlier, a plan by China was on the table to bring about peace. But little came of that. "The West didn't even want to look at that," reacts Niemoller, while Putin rallied behind it. Now it's too late."

"What European and American leaders want to achieve with the war is completely unclear. 'Stop the Russians,' but what does that mean concretely? Zelensky declared this week in an interview with The Economist that he wanted to isolate Crimea from Russia. So it is clear that he has lost any sense of reality."

NATO

"As for the NATO countries," Niemoller continued, "Turkey announced yesterday that no British minesweepers pass through the Bosporus. So here we are talking about the most strategically important NATO country."

"What NATO leaders want doesn't matter much else. Washington decides. Biden seems to have gone completely berserk. Who threatened that the US would get into a direct confrontation with Russia if the Russians continue their successful missile strikes."

"Even the Western media now acknowledge that the Russians have developed new, 'smart' techniques to which the Ukrainian air defense has no answer," he continued. "The only one still pretending to believe in it is Rutte. But he has a personal interest with his application to NATO. He was the first to throw our F-16s into the shop window and by doing so he is even putting the Netherlands at risk!"

Checkmate

The question then is whether this war was unwinnable for Ukraine from the beginning or whether there was ever a chance that Russia's incitement could succeed,

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"The first," Niemoller replies. "The only way to win this war against Russia is to flatten the whole country with nukes, and then just hope you get ahead of the Russians. And then the Chinese as well. But I don't think the Americans would dare to repeat the joke they pulled on Japan. Because remember, those American nukes were not meant to bring Japan to its knees. It was already on its knees. They were a message to the Soviet Union, which was about to attack Japan."

"Besides, that was then. Meanwhile, the U.S. has long since ceased to be the only nuclear power."

What does this mean?

According to Niemoller, the answer is quite simple. "So the U.S. is in checkmate. After the fall of Kabul, and the lost wars in Iraq and Syria, the era of American hegemony is over. A new multipolar order is coming. The lost war in Ukraine is the final battle."

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