- Frits Bosch - Inflation: "Which of the Three" is to blame for our high inflation? And: long live Agriculture!

Inflation is always keeping financial minds busy. Do you remember that game of "Who of the Three?" Dr. Klaas Knot, the boss of DNB, doesn't quite know how to decide which of the three is the real culprit for inflation: the government (the government), the unions (the wages), the business community (the profits), so he addresses he appeals to all three to moderate.

In the Netherlands inflation is rising - now over 4% - while interest rates are falling elsewhere in the EU. So the EU's uniform interest rate policy, interest rate decline, is not desirable for us. This is where the disadvantage of the uniform monetary policy of the EU is around the corner. The EU cannot interest rate differentiate according to countries.

When I worked at the UNO there was the so-called tripartite consultation so that the three parties could come out together in a good conversation came out. Das war einmal... I asked Prof Lex Hoogduin, professor of economics RUG, whether it is actually within the remit of the DNB to call on the three parties to call on the Three Parties to moderate themselves. Hoogduin: "Yes, that fits in the tradition of the "moderate monetarism" of DNB and the NL Polder model. Read my contribution to the discussion on wages and profits with the permanent Lower House committee of social affairs and employment a few weeks ago (available on the website of the Lower House). In the past, attempts would have been made to reach a social agreement concluded between employers, employees and the government, with DNB as advisor. As I understand it, the cabinet is not in favor of such an agreement and neither is the FNV not. In these circumstances, it is best for the social partners to conduct the wage negotiations as decentralized as possible. DNB can then not much else to do but point out the importance of controlled wage and price development, but it is up to the social partners to make that happen. Incidentally, the ECB's estimates assume that the recent wage increases will not be passed on by companies. Furthermore, the DNB is rightly calling on the cabinet rightly calls on the cabinet not to keep throwing oil on the fire of inflation. Finally, rapid restoration of price stability is in the public interest. No one is better off from inflation remaining inflation remaining too high."

In the whole discussion about inflation, the monetary policy of the EU with its excessive debt remains out of the picture. Monetarists such as Prof Korteweg and Prof Bomhof used to point out inflation through monetary creation, but you don't hear them anymore. I consider the EU to be partly to blame for high inflation. The wage increase I consider justified: sectors have been at the zero line for many years. Especially in the category of "the Indispensable" I consider wage increase very justified, so differentiate here too.

Finally, I would point to the ever decreasing labor productivity in the Netherlands. This is because more and more hands are needed to keep the economy going because the average quality of those hands is falling. Elsewhere in the EU, labor labor productivity. In addition, more and more more and more Dutch people work in sectors with low labor productivity such as healthcare, government (civil service overdose), education, services.

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There is one sector where labor productivity is rising: the agriculture. Farmers are managing to produce more in fewer hours. In 2022, labor productivity rose sharply by 14.6%. If that sector shrinks, Dutch labor productivity falls even more sharply. Could Knot be able to shine his light on that. Caroline van der Plas also likes that: we owe it to agriculture that Dutch We have agriculture to thank for the fact that the Netherlands' labor productivity is still somewhat upright. Long live agriculture! agriculture!

We must stop wallowing in this evil past. Look forward and make something beautiful out of it together! You can do it!

Frits Bosch is an economist and sociologist. He is also the author of "Risk as Obsession", "That's the Risk", "World at a Turning Point", "Unfear among the elite", "Does the Netherlands also abolish itself" and "Feminism in the Workplace".